Monthly Update From Mansukh (For Private Circulations Only) Issue: January 2013
 
 
 
1
Market
Review
2
Global
Snapshot
3
Economy
Update
4
Technical
Picks
5
Fundamental
Picks
6
Market
Tutorials
7
Commodity
Section
8
Auxiliary
Section
 
 
 
 
Indian benchmark equity indices concluded the last trading session of calendar year 2012 on a disappointing note but garnered massive gains of over 25 per cent on annual basis. Key domestic benchmarks put-up a fascinating show when most of the world markets were closed on the beginning of
 
monthly magzine
the New Year. Though volume-wise it wasn't a great day, price-wise the Mid-cap and Small-cap stocks celebrated the first trading day of the year. The rally was mainly supported by interest rate sensitive sectors like banking and real estate, which

remained on buyers' radar on optimism of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) easing monetary policy this month.
December series futures and options expiry turned out to be an extremely disappointing affair for the Indian stock markets as the benchmarks capitulated to the unrelenting selling pressure amid extremely high volatility. The hefty sell-off witnessed in last leg of trade dragged the key indices below the psychological 5,900 (Nifty) and 19,350 (Sensex) levels. Investors resorted to ruthless position squaring from the Oil & Gas, Software, metal and technology counters in the last half an hour, ahead of the F&O series expiry. The final day of the 2012's last F&O series saw Indian benchmark indices collapsing by over a half a percent as investors rolled over their portfolios for the fresh January series coupled with looming uncertainty over a US fiscal-cliff resolution. On the F&O front, Nifty and Sensex, for December series, registered gains of 0.7% each, as against 2.10% profit in November series. From the expiry perspective, market wide

 
rollover of 61.42% was observed, which was higher than the three month average of 61.03% while Nifty rollovers were at 56.94%, higher than three month average of 53.14%. Sectorally, Telecom, cement and capital goods space witnessed high rollover of positions while infrastructure, technology and automobile stocks observed relatively low rolls into the December series.
monthly-magzine

Nevertheless Playing catch-up with the overnight gains at Wall Street, Indian equity markets, after starting the New Year '2013' on a promising note, rallied close to 20 months high to end comfortably past psychological 19500 (Sensex) and 5900 (Nifty)levels. US economy back from the edge of a 'fiscal cliff' on Tuesday, voting to avoid imminent tax hikes and spending cuts in a bipartisan deal that could still face stiff challenges in the House of Representatives. In a rare New Year's session, senators voted 89-8 to raise some taxes on the wealthy while making permanent low tax rates on the middle class that have been in place for a decade. Conclusively we believe spot index may continue its overwhelming performance in the upcoming month however 6010-6030 could be near term resistance levels. Any successful closing above this range may further boost the sentiments and we might see 6130-6160 level in a short span of time. On the flip side 5800 support with 5650 could be the crucial support zone. HAPPY TRADING AND HAVE A VERY PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR 2013…

 
 
 
 
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  GLOBAL SNAPSHOT    
 
   
 
 
FISCAL CLIFF: BOOSTER OR BLOGGER ONLY TIME WILL TELL
 
 
 
 
monthly-magzine
Term "fiscal cliff” has been coined to describe a combination of tax increases and spending cuts due to come into effect at midnight on December 31, when the terms of the Budget Control Act of 2011 are due to go into effect. In 2001, under President George Bush, a raft of "temporary" tax cuts were enacted and are now set to expire on December 31. At the same time a raft of spending cuts are due to take effect. President Barack Obama, his fellow Democrats and Republicans in Congress agreed at the end of 2010 to extend these rates for two years, but the deadline is now looming. Some $607bn (£376.5bn) of cuts and tax rises will occur, including reductions in the defence budget, the end of an employee tax holiday - which would result in a 2pc increase for workers, changes to Medicare allowances and higher personal taxes. If Congress and Obama do nothing by the deadline of December 31, taxes will rise for most Americans. Rates will go up to 15, 28, 31, 36 and 39.6pc from the present 10, 15, 25, 28, 33 and 35pc. Mr Obama and the Democrats want to prevent this by extending the Bush tax rates again, but only for income below $200,000 per individual, or $250,000 per family. For income above that level, they seek a return to the higher, pre-Bush tax rates.

 

Mr Obama and lawmakers are working to prevent around $600 billion in combined federal spending cuts and tax increases, a shock economists say could stop the economic recovery in its tracks and perhaps reverberate beyond U.S. shores. The president, who won re-election on a platform that included a pledge to raise taxes on top earners, said Senate leaders were working right now to craft a bipartisan measure that could win approval in both houses of Congress. If the fiscal policies currently in place are continued in coming years, the revenues collected by the federal government will fall far short of federal spending. That gap will grow over time as the aging of the population and the rising cost of health care continue to boost federal spending under current policies. Therefore, putting the budget on a sustainable path will require significant changes in spending policies, tax policies, or both. Policymakers face difficult trade-offs in deciding how quickly to implement policies to reduce budget deficits. On the one hand, cutting spending or increasing taxes slowly would lead to a greater accumulation of government debt and might raise doubts about whether longer-term deficit reduction would ultimately take effect. On the other hand, implementing spending cuts or tax increases abruptly would give families, businesses, and state and local governments little time to plan and adjust.

What would happen if lawmakers changed fiscal policy in late 2012 to remove or offset all of the policies that are scheduled to reduce the federal budget deficit by 5.1 percent of GDP between calendar years 2012 and 2013? In that case, the growth of real GDP in calendar year 2013 would lie in a broad range around 4.4 percent, well above the 0.5 percent projected for 2013 under current law. However, eliminating or reducing the fiscal restraint scheduled to occur next year without imposing comparable restraint in future years would reduce output and income in the longer run relative to what would occur if the scheduled fiscal restraint remained in place. If all current policies were extended for a prolonged period, federal debt held by the publiccurrently about 70 percent of GDP, its highest mark since 1950would continue to rise much faster than GDP. Such a path for federal debt could not be sustained indefinitely, and policy changes would be required at some point. In shorter run, policymakers wanted to minimize the short-run costs of narrowing the deficit very quickly while also minimizing the longer-run costs of allowing large deficits to persist.

 
  monthly-magzine  
Source: Reuters India
 
 
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      ECONOMY UPDATE  
   
 
 
CORE SECTOR GROWTH DIPS IN NOVEMBER: FISCAL DEFICIT MARGINALLY REDUCED
 
 
 
 
monthly-magzine
The growth of eight core sectors slipped to four-month low of 1.8 percent in November reflecting the economic slowdown. The decline in core sector growth in November, 2012 was on account of negative growth registered in the production of coal, natural gas and cement and deceleration in growth rates of electricity, steel and petroleum refinery products. Contraction in growth of core sectors will have the implications on industrial production data for November to be released later next month. Growth rate of eight core sector industries declined to 1.8 per cent in November 2012, from 7.8 per cent in the same month last year, mainly due to contraction in production of natural gas, coal and cement. During April-November 2012-13, the cumulative growth rate of the core industries was 3.5% as against 4.8% recorded during the corresponding period in 2011-12.

Petroleum refinery production with a weight of 5.94% in IIP index grew by 6.6% in November 2012 compared to its growth at 11.2% in November 2011. On collective basis, it registered a growth of 7.2% during April-November 2012-13 compared to 4.4% growth during the same period of 2011-12. Crude oil, which occupies 5.22% weight age in index registered marginal growth
 

of growth 0.8% in reporting month compared to a negative growth of 5.7% in November 2011. Cumulatively, Crude Oil production recorded a negative growth of 0.5% during April-November 2012-13 compared to its growth at 2.9% during the same period of 2011-12. Moreover, fertilizer production with a weight of 1.25% registered a growth of 5.0% in November 2012 against its negative growth at 6.7% in November 2011. Furthermore, Steel production along with the electricity generation with weight 6.68% and 10.32% registered growth 6.0% and 2.3% in month under review against its 10.5% and 14.4% growth in November 2011. Cumulative growth of Electricity generation was 4.6% during April-November 2012-13 compared to its 9.4% growth during the same period of 2011-12. On the flip side, Coal production with a weight of 4.38% in the index, registered a de-growth of 4.4% in November 2012 compared to its positive growth at 4.9% in November 2011.

Meanwhile India's fiscal deficit during the April-November period was Rs 4.13 trillion, which is 80.4% of the budgeted full fiscal year 2012-13 target. During the same period in the previous fiscal year, the deficit was 85.6% of the budget target. Net tax receipts for April-November stood at Rs 3.7 trillion while total expenditure was about Rs 8.7 trillion. Earlier in March, the government had budgeted a fiscal deficit of Rs 5.14 trillion, or 5.1% of the GDP, for the fiscal year ending March 2013. However, in October, it was revised to 5.3%, mainly on the back of subdued revenue collection and rising fuel and food subsidy bills. However Following positive local equity markets, Indian rupee appreciated against dollar on the first day of trading in the New Year amid dollar selling by exporters and some banks. Investor's sentiments were boosted after White House and congressional lawmakers have reached a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff, which will delay harsh spending cuts by two months. However, domestic currency's gains were capped by the country's widening current account deficit, which stood at 5.4% of GDP in the September quarter as export growth slowed more sharply than imports.

 
 
  monthly-report
Source: Reuters India
 
 
 
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  TECHNICAL PICKS    
 
   
 
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
 
 

NMDC Ltd, India's top ore miner, accounts for about 15 per cent of iron ore mined in the country, with annual production capacity of 30 million tonnes. In a fillip for its efforts to cap the widening fiscal deficit, government has raised $1.1 billion by selling a stake in state miner NMDC. The share sale was the largest by the government since a $2.5 billion auction of stock in state explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corporation at the end of the previous financial year. In NMDC sale, the government offered 396.47 million shares, or 10 percent of its stake, at a floor price of Rs 147, an 8 percent discount to December 12 close. Moreover NMDC, country's largest iron ore producer is looking for acquisition of more coal mines in different parts of the world through Perth-based Legacy Iron Ore. The company had purchased 50% stake in Legacy Iron Ore that is exploring and developing mineral projects in Western Australia and Queensland. The company expects to increase its domestic output from current 32 million tonnes per annum to 48 million tonnes per annum in the next three-four years.

On technical perspective, after taking significant correction from the highs of Rs 260, scrip has shown crucial resistance below Rs 135 level. At current juncture we believe scrip has the potential to recover from the current level as its technical indicators i.e. RSI and MACD also suggest some technical pull back in near term. Hence we recommended 'Buy' in this stock.

 

NMDC LTD

monthly research report
SCRIP NAME TRIGGER PRICE STOP LOSS TARGET 1 TARGET 2 DURATION
NMDC 158-165 135 190 220 1 Months
 
 
 

Shree Renuka Sugars is one of the largest private sector sugar manufacturers in the country, with a combined crushing capacity of about 35,000 TCD (across seven units) in India and 59,520 TCD (across four units) in Brazil. Shree Renuka Sugars has reportedly restarted its 2,000 tonnes per day (TPD) refinery plant located at Haldia in West Bengal after a gap of nearly a year. India, the world's biggest sugar consumer, currently imposes a 10% duty on imports of raw and white sugar. However, importing raw sugar for refining, and selling white sugar in the local market is still viable. Meanwhile The Total revenue for the quarter ended September 2012 of Rs. 11544.00 millions remain, more or less, the same. The Total Profit for the quarter ended September 2012 of Rs. 77.00 millions grew from Rs.-573.00 millions & Operating profit surged to 1128.00 millions from the corresponding previous quarter of 609.00 millions. Moreover Shree Renuka Sugars has reportedly restarted its 2,000 TPD refinery plant located at Haldia in West Bengal after a gap of nearly a year.

On technical viewpoint, stock has shown consolidation pattern around Rs 30 and currently in upward bias. Moreover it's RSI and other technical indicators also displaying some buying opportunities in near term. Hence investors are advised to BUY this stock for a price target of Rs 36-40 in near term.

 

SHREE RENUKA SUGARS LTD

monthly report
SCRIP NAME TRIGGER PRICE STOP LOSS TARGET 1 TARGET 2 DURATION
RENUKA 28-30 24 36 40 1 Months
 
 
 
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      FUNDAMENTAL PICKS  
   
 
 
FUNDAMENTAL PICK
 
 
 
   Himatsingka Seide Ltd Target Price:` 52
   
 
 

Himatsingka Seide Ltd (HSL) is vertically integrated Home Textile major with a global footprint, Its product range includes decorative fabrics for home furnishings mainly bed linen, bridal wear, fashion fabrics for men and women wear etc. It has an installed capacity of 60,000 meters/day of wider width cotton fabrics & 8,000 sets/day of exquisite made-up products to cater the home textile market for various well-known brands. Its operations spread across Asia, Europe and North America and its retail & wholesale distribution divisions carry some of the most prestigious brands in the Home Textile space.

Financials: In the last five years (FY07-12), the top line of the company grew at CAGR growth of 46%. Operating profit grew at 23%, while due to exceptional items company has reported numerous losses during that period. In FY12, the Net Sales of company grew by 16.5% to Rs 1406.21 crore over FY11, however owing to lower operating cost the Operating Profit grew at 66% to Rs 144.69 crore while company has reported profit of Rs 33.94 against the loss of Rs 15.77 crore in FY11. In Q2FY13, The Net Sales of the company increased 27.2%, Operating Profit grew by 10.7% while PAT has been marginally decline by 2.4%. The operating margin of the company declined by 135bps to 9.10% and PAT margin turn down 69bps to 2.27% compare to Q2FY12.

INVESTMENT GROUNDS
Indian Textile Industry, a differentiation of design and fashion ....
India, being the second largest producer of cotton, enjoys an edge in low cost cotton sourcing compared to other countries. The last year saw a significant reduction in prices for cotton and ensured the much needed stability in cotton prices, both in India and globally. As a result, volatility in prices was lower than the previous year and the availability of product was more consistent. Indian textile industry has differentiation of design and fashion capabilities that enables it to build relationships with global retailers and score over competition from China and other countries. Therefore, investing in design and product development expertise has become a key for success for companies operates in the home textiles segment, hence to address these challenges, the company continuously invests in new technology, strives to shorten.

Branded products & distribution network in overseas market…

On the distribution side of the business, company has clocked steady growth in the North American markets, which includes the United States, Canada and Mexico. Company's 80% revenue comes from North America market. Company has earned decent growth 32% in the revenue for the North American market during the quarter, EBITDA from this region for distribution divisions for the quarter also grew 16.8%. Further, to strengthen its presence in American region it has acquired additional 10% stake in Divatex Home Fashions through its 100% subsidiary. Company has significant network through these distribution entities across the American, European & Asian regions and further we believe that with the global brand presence it will expand its brand & distribution network in other developed markets.

 
 

Improved Capacity utilization helps to increase the realization ...
The Bed Lien the one of the major contributor in fabric segment for the company has improved the capacity utilization by 75%, which has been done by a bit of debottlenecking in the bed linen plant. However, under the drapery and upholstery division, company is capable to utilize only 40% of installed capacity although the company is likely to achieve the same capacity of 75% in this segment also. The enhanced capacity utilization in Bed Linen segment has helped to increase the average realization cost by 9.3% to Rs.322 a metre in Q2FY13 from Rs.295 per metre (pm) in Q2FY12. Despite only 40% utilization under Drapery & Upholstery division, average realization increased by 4.8% from Rs.1081 pm to Rs.1132 pm.

Branded Products & Strong Order Book ensures the revenue ...
Company has strong product portfolio of Decorative fabrics, Bridal Wear, Fashion Wear & Spun Wear/ Blended Yarn under the various well-known brands such as Barbara Barry, Calvein Klein, Bellora, Esprit, and Peacock Alley. With Bed Linen manufacturing facility at Hassan along with distribution and brand synergies of Divatex Home Fashions Inc., DWI Holdings Inc. and Giuseppe Bellora SpA, the Company has created a strong presence in the home textiles segment. On the other hand, company has strong order book of Rs 263 crore for its bedding and upholstery & drapery division. Out of this Rs 239 crore is for its most revenue contributing segment Bed Lien and remaining Rs 24 crore for the upholstery and drapery business.

monthly-report
 
 
 
 
5
 
 
 
   
   
 
 
 
  MARKET TUTORIALS    
 
   
 
 
USE OF FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS WHILE INVESTING
 
 
 
 
Fundamental analysis is the groundwork of investing. In fact, some would say that you aren't really investing if you aren't performing fundamental analysis. Because the subject is so broad, however, it's tough to know where to start. There are an endless number of investment strategies that are very different from each other, yet almost all use the fundamentals. The biggest part of fundamental analysis involves delving into the financial statements. Also known as quantitative analysis, this involves looking at revenue, expenses, assets, liabilities and all the other financial aspects of a company. Fundamental analysts look at this information to gain insight on a company's future performance.
 

Why use Fundamental Analysis?
When talking about stocks, fundamental analysis is a technique that attempts to determine a security's value by focusing on underlying factors that affect a company's actual business and its future prospects. On a broader scope, you can perform fundamental analysis on industries or the economy as a whole. The term simply refers to the analysis of the economic well-being of a financial entity as opposed to only its price movements. Fundamental analysis serves to answer questions, such as, is the company's revenue growing? Is it actually making a profit? Is it in a strong-enough position to beat out its competitors in the future? Is it able to repay its debts? Of course, these are very involved questions, and there are literally hundreds of others you might have about a company. It all really boils down to one question: Is the company's stock a good investment? Think of fundamental analysis as a toolbox to help you answer this question.

Quantitative and Qualitative Fundamentals
As we mentioned in the introduction, the big problem with defining fundamentals is that it can include anything related to the economic well-being of a company. Obvious items include things like revenue and profit, but fundamentals also include everything from a company's market share to the quality of its management. The various fundamental factors can be grouped into two categories: quantitative and qualitative. Quantitative fundamentals are numeric, measurable characteristics about a business. You can measure revenue, profit, assets and more with great precision. While a qualitative fundamentals refers to, the less tangible factors surrounding a business, things such as the quality of a company's board members and key executives, its brand-name recognition, patents or proprietary technology etc.

 



The Concept of Intrinsic Value
One of the primary assumptions of fundamental analysis is that the price on the stock market does not fully reflect a stock's “real” value. After all, why would you be doing price analysis if the stock market were always correct? In financial language, this true value is known as the intrinsic value. For example, let's say that a company's stock was trading at Rs 200 and you determine the intrinsic value that of the firm is worth Rs 250. This is clearly relevant because an investor wants to buy stocks that are trading at prices significantly below their estimated intrinsic value. This leads us to one of the second major assumptions of fundamental analysis: in the long run, the stock market will reflect the fundamentals. There is no point in buying a stock based on intrinsic value if the price never reflected that value.

Summing Up: Whenever you are thinking of investing in a company, it is very important that you understand what it does, its market and the industry in which it operates. You should never blindly invest in a company. One of the most important areas for any investor to look at when researching a company is the financial statements. It is essential to understand the purpose of each part of these statements and how to interpret them. The goal of this tutorial is to provide a foundation for understanding fundamental analysis. While you may not be a "stock-picker extraordinaire" but I very sure that after reading this tutorial, you will have a much more solid grasp of the language and concepts behind security analysis and be able to use this to further your knowledge in other areas without feeling totally lost.

 
 
 
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      COMMODITY SECTION  
   
 
 
GOLD AND SILVER NEAR TO ITS BOTTOM BUT UPSIDE LIMITED IN 1HALF OF 2013
 
 
 
 

Gold and Silver prices are up by more than 5% and 8% respectively in 2012, as central banks from the U.S. to China and Europe took appropriate measures to crutch up economies and expanded Gold Reserves. Gold Prices continued increases this year on low interest rates, concerns over the financial stability of the Eurozone and diversification into bullion by central banks. But from the last week Silver Prices dropped by almost 7% the worst week since December 2011. Gold Prices fell 2.3% last week as U.S.budget talks stalled, the biggest loss since the period ended June 22. For 2013, one thing is quite sure that there would be a complete breakdown in value for paper currencies which may trigger sharp upsides in Gold and Silver for sometime. But overall 2013 will be a year of a lot of pain. Gold and Silver seem to have bottomed out for now but accessing an upside would be really difficult with thin volumes around the world due to Christmas & also the year end when most big traders & hedge funds prefer to remain on cash.

Morgan Stanley for instance, lists gold, silver, corn and soybeans as its preferred commodities for 2013. It expects gold to average $1,853 an ounce next year and for silver to average $35. For its part, Bank of America sees gold, copper, silver, platinum and palladium outperforming other commodities in the year ahead as global economic grow averages 3.2%. UBS said earlier in December that its gold forecast is $1,900 an ounce in 2013, while its silver outlook is pegged at $36.80. Its platinum forecast is $1,740, and its palladium outlook is at $780.



 
monthly report

According to our expectation large-scale policy easing by the Fed and the ECB should push gold prices higher but upside in gold could be capped near to $ 1900 and in Silver around $ 42.50 in the first half of 2013. However a stronger Chinese economy will likely lend support to supply constrained metals next year, and we expect copper prices to outshine others in the first half of 2013.

CRUDE OIL: MCX crude oil is the worst performer in energy complex this year which fell more than 5.50% compared to last year. In 2011, MCX Crude prices settled higher at Rs.5296 and this year prices are trading at Rs.5000 levels. In 2012, MCX Crude prices have made a high of Rs.5635; the prices were unable to sustain at higher levels thereafter and made a low of Rs.4448. According to EIA expects that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $110 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2012. This forecast rests on the assumption that U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) grows by 2.1 percent in 2012 and 1.8 percent in 2013.

 
 
 
 
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Disclaimer : :This report is for informational purposes only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Mansukh, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the Mansukh is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliate, officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation of issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in these securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments or the company(ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company(ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such Company(ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High Court.
Safe Harbor Statement :Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectation, outlook etc are included in this update ot help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's products and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisor before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
 
 
 

 
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  AUXILIARY SECTION    
 
   
 
 
MIFM - CAREER ENRICHMENT THROUGH KNOWLEDGE AND INNOVATIVE THINKING
 
 



Mansukh Institute of Financial Markets (MIFM) is an advanced research institute established by Mr. J U Mansukhani, an ex-IES Officer, who has decades of experience in financial markets and research, is the founder of Mansukh Institute of Financial Markets. MIFM is specializes in Financial Market Education and Services. MIFM is pioneers in introducing short-term job-oriented diploma programme for providing state-of-the art facilities in the field of financial markets. Specifically, it caters to the need of training and placement for the personnel engaged in financial markets like Marketing Personnel, Dealers/Arbitrageurs, Research Analysts and Managers.

Vision
To be world class Training & Education Institute shaping careers through our eminent faculty & cutting edge research & becoming a shining example of achieving such high standards as to make the alumni proud of its pedigree.

Mission
To enhance the glow of knowledge through quality educational programmes resulting in improvement of the intellectual & practical skills of individuals for their overall growth & growth of society.

For more updates please visit our website :- www.mifm.edu.in or follow us on facebook at http://www.facebook.com/Mansukh.Institute.of.Financial.Markets