Monthly Update From Mansukh (For Private Circulations Only) Issue: May 2013
 
 
 
1
Market
Review
2
Global
Economy
3
Economy
Update
4
Technical
Picks
5
Fundamental
Picks
6
Market
Tutorials
7
Commodity
Section
8
Auxiliary
Section
 
 
 
 
The April series Futures and Options contract settlement turned out to be an encouraging event for the Indian markets as bulls showed strong buying fervor blue chip stocks. Hefty short covering in the dying hours ahead of the series expiry further stoked the benchmarks to settle around the high point
 
monthly magzine
of the day. The resilient markets vivaciously rallied over 571.08 (Sensex) and 233.75 (Nifty) points during the series, conquering 19,400 (Sensex) and 5,900 (Nifty) bastions. For the series, while Nifty rallied over 4%, Sensex was up by 3%,

in broader space, CNX Midcap index added gains over massive 5%, with BSE Smallcap index crept higher by 4%. Surprisingly, trade of over Rs 4 lac crore was done in terms of volume turnover during the last trading session of April F&O series.
Sentiments in the domestic markets remained euphoric after Prime Minister's Economic Advisory panel Chairman C Rangarajan said that India has ability to grow at 8 percent without fuelling inflation. He said 'with an investment rate in the range of 32-35 percent, there is a potential growth rate of 8 percent in the economy and it is possible to grow at that rate even without provoking high level of inflation'. Sentiments also got some boost from rally in Aviation pack. Stocks like Jet Airways, Spicejet, and Kingfisher Airlines edged higher on report that India has agreed to enhance seat entitlements to and from Abu Dhabi multiple times despite political opposition. Meanwhile In order to prod sputtering economy, the RBI in its monetary policy review, yet again

 
delivered 25 basis points repo rate cut, while keeping the CRR unchanged. Thus, repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) now stands to be reduced from 7.5 per cent to 7.25 per cent with immediate effect.
monthly-magzine

On the other hand expanding at its slowest pace since November 2011, the seasonally adjusted HSBC PMI, a composite indicator of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy slowed to 51 in April against its previous reading of 52 in March, registering its second monthly decline. Production at Indian factories increased at the slowest pace in 49 months in April, mainly on account of deceleration in domestic orders and persistent power shortages. Nevertheless, the PMI index, which gauges business activity in Indian factories but not its utilities, has held above the watershed 50 level that divides growth from contraction for over four years. Moreover owing to the prevailing global economic slowdown, the Apl-Feb period of FY13, FDI declined by 38 percent to $20.89 billion from $33.49 billion in the corresponding period last year. Country wise, India received maximum FDI from Mauritius ($8.97 billion), followed by Japan ($2.11 bn), Singapore ($1.98 bn) and Netherlands ($1.67 bn). For the upcoming month 6070 followed by 6135 could be near term resistance levels where profit booking scenario couldn't be rule out. On the flip side 5710-5650 may be near term support levels where fresh buying could be initiated. HAPPY TRADING

 
 
 
 
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  GLOBAL SNAPSHOT    
 
   
 
 
US ECONOMY: SHOWING SOME SIGN OF REVIVAL THOUGH MISSES FORECAST
 
 
 
 
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The US economic recovery gathered pace in the first quarter but fell short of expectations as government cuts countered a sharp rise in consumer spending. The nation's gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 2.5% annual rate between January and March. Economists had been forecasting growth of 3%. The latest figure marks 15 consecutive quarters of growth and is substantially higher than the 0.4% GDP growth in the final quarter of 2012. The average pace of growth is just above 2% annually, weak by historical standards. The numbers come after a disappointing news from the jobs market, which added just 88,000 new positions in March. Consumer spending was the biggest driver of growth in the first quarter. Personal consumption expenditures grew 3.2%, the best pace since the end of 2010. Sales of durable goods including cars and household appliances rose 8.1%. Government cuts continued to hold back GDP. Federal government spending and investment dropped 8.4% in the quarter, following a 14.8% fall in the last quarter of 2012. National defense decreased 11.5%, compared with a decrease of 22.1% at the end of last year.


 
The decline in government spending over the past two quarters is the biggest six-month contraction. Despite the decline in incomes, consumption growth accelerated to 3.2%, from 1.8%, although that means the saving rate fell to 2.6%, from 4.7%. Meanwhile Business investment increased by a modest 2.1%, after a massive 13.2% annualized gain in the final quarter of last year. The housing recovery generated a 12.6% jump in residential investment, which was the third consecutive double-digit quarterly gain. The even worse news is that the US economy may slow down in the second quarter. Not only will activity be impeded perhaps severely by cuts in federal programmes, but consumers are unlikely to continue running down their savings to finance their spending in the way they did in the first three months of the year. In particular, the banks have been able to dispose of their toxic assets through the Tarp (Troubled Asset Relief Programme) and there is no longer a huge overhang of unsold and repossessed properties weighing down on the real estate market.

US MARKET: U.S. stocks ended slightly higher, inching to fresh gains after the S&P 500 on the last day of APRIL 2013 climbed to a new record ( 1598) and the Nasdaq Composite hit a 12-year high at 3328.79. Trading was muted as the Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day meeting on monetary policy. Economic reports also presented a mixed picture, with one report finding U.S. business activity contracted for the first time in over three years while separate studies showed gains in consumer confidence and housing prices. Tech stocks enjoyed a strong session, carrying the Nasdaq Composite to a moderate rise. Moreover The S&P/Case-Schiller index of property values in 20 U.S. cities also provided some positive impetus for stocks, showing a 9.3% increase in residential real-estate prices compared to year-ago levels. That was the biggest increase in nearly seven years and follows a 8.1% rise during January as a growing number of buyer were bidding on relatively limited supply of homes. Overall, 11 of the 20 metropolitan areas tracked by Case-Schiller recorded gains, led by a 23% year over year rise for Phoenix.
 
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      ECONOMY UPDATE  
   
 
 
RBI CUTS REPO RATE BY 25BPS: LEAVES CRR UNCHANGED
 
 
 
 
monthly-magzine

Striking a hawkish tone a day before when it is widely expected to cut interest rate, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments 2012-13 report, said that scope for further easing of monetary policy this fiscal year is limited. The apex bank's cautious language in its macroeconomic survey could dent rising hopes for a rate cut. As per the survey, though demand-side inflation pressures reduced, high consumer price inflation along with the current account deficit (CAD) well above sustainable levels, limit the space for monetary policy to support growth. On the inflation front, it said that trend of downward momentum will continue through first half, whereas suppressed inflation in form of upward revision in energy prices and a base effect will lead to an increase in the second half of the fiscal.

Average headline inflation as per the survey is expected to moderate to 6.5 percent from 7.3 percent. India's headline inflation in March fell to its lowest in more than three years at 5.96 percent, but the consumer price index remained elevated at
 

10.39%. On the growth front, revival is expected in the current fiscal, but the recovery process would be modest in backdrop of stagnating industrial output. Further, the central bank expects the growth to improve to 6 percent in 2013-14, and about 5 percent in the fiscal year that ended in March. As per the survey, if the government continues with its recent efforts of cutting expenditure to meet the fiscal consolidation target, pressure on the CAD is expected to reduce. For the third quarter of 2012-13, the CAD/GDP ratio rose to a record 6.7 percent and is expected to be at a new high of around 5 percent for the year 2012-13, notwithstanding the likely improvement in last quarter. For the 2012-13 financial year, the central bank has already slashed repo rate by 100 basis points and is further expected to cut the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent amid economy growing at its slowest in a decade.

The growth in the eight core industries' slowed marginally down to 2.9% in March as against 3% in the same month last year reflecting a slowdown in the economy. For the entire fiscal April- March 2013, the core industries growth slipped to a decade low of 2.6 % compared to 5% in 2011-12 mainly on account of declining output of crude oil and natural gas. The eight industries - crude oil, petroleum refinery products, natural gas, fertilisers, coal, electricity, cement and finished steel - have a weightage of 37.9% in the overall Index of IIP. The marginal decline in growth in March was on account of negative growth witnessed in the production of natural gas and low growth recorded in the production of coal and crude oil. The production of natural gas contracted by 17.7 % in March, while, coal and crude oil output growth dropped to 0.3 % and 0.2 % from 7.3 % and (-) 2.9 % in March 2012. Moreover, cement production growth slowed to 6.6 % in the reported period, as against 7.1 % in March 2012.On the other hand, petroleum refinery, fertiliser and steel production grew by 5.6 %, 3.6 % and 6.6 % in March 2013, as against 1.6 %, 1.5 % and 6.2 %, respectively, in the year-ago period. Electricity generation grew marginally to 3% growth in March 2013 compared to its 2.8 per cent growth in the same month of previous year.

 
 
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  TECHNICAL PICKS    
 
   
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
 
 

Navneet Publications (India) Limited (NPIL)is in the business of curriculum and non-curriculum based publications, scholastic paper and non-paper stationery products. It has presence in Maharashtra and Gujarat with ~65% market share. A decent increase of about 53.49% in the turnover to Rs. 1250.20 millions was observed for the quarter ended December 2012. The turnover stood at Rs. 814.50 million during the similar quarter previous year.Net Profit for the quarter ended December 2012 zoomed to 180.30% from Rs. 40.10 millions to Rs. 112.40 millions. The company reported a good operating profit of 238.30 million compared to 92.50 millions of corresponding previous quarter. NPIL's stationery business witnessed muted growth from Rs 230 crore in FY09 to Rs 249 crore in FY12 (~2.8% CAGR) due to severe domestic competition and de-growth in exports. However, owing to the demonstrated revival in the export business, we expect revenues from stationery business to grow at a healthy CAGR of 12.9% to Rs 359 crore by FY15E.

On technical perspective, after taking significant correction from the highs of Rs 70, scrip has shown crucial resistance below Rs 54 level. At current juncture we believe scrip has the potential to recover from the current level as its technical indicators i.e. RSI and MACD also suggest some technical pull back in near term. Hence we recommended 'Buy' in this stock.

 

NAVNEET PUBLICATIONS LTD

monthly research report
SCRIP NAME TRIGGER PRICE STOP LOSS TARGET 1 TARGET 2 DURATION
NAVNETPUBL 58-56 50 68 75 1 Months
 
 
 

MAHINDRA HOLIDAYS AND RESORTS LTD. One of the leading leisure hospitality providers in India, offering quality family holidays with a range of services designed to meet the diverse holiday needs and interests of a family. It provides family holidays primarily through vacation ownership memberships. The resorts offer apartments and cottages, and an experience through resort specific amenities and facilities. As part of the growth strategy, It has also diversified the portfolio by introducing new vacation ownership offerings, Zest and Club Mahindra Fun days, Mahindra Home stays and travel and holiday related services through clubmahindra.travel. fair growth of 6.46% in the revenue at Rs. 2005.40 millions was reported in the March 2013 quarter as compared to Rs. 1883.69 millions during year-ago period. The Net Profit of the company registered a slight decline of -16.93% to Rs. 309.27 millions from Rs. 372.29 millions. Operating profit for the quarter ended March 2013 decreased to 549.17 million as compared to 557.66 millions of corresponding quarter ended March 2012.

On technical viewpoint, stock has shown consolidation pattern around Rs 250 and currently in upward bias. Moreover it's RSI and other technical indicators also displaying some buying opportunities in near term. Hence investors are advised to BUY this stock for a price target of Rs 300-330 in near term.

 

MAHINDRA HOLIDAYS AND RESORTS LTD

monthly report
SCRIP NAME TRIGGER PRICE STOP LOSS TARGET 1 TARGET 2 DURATION
MHRIL 240-250 225 300 330 1 Months
 
 
 
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      FUNDAMENTAL PICKS  
   
 
 
FUNDAMENTAL PICK
 
 
 
   Voltas Ltd Target Price:` 107
   
 
 

Voltas Ltd India's largest air conditioning company is one of the world's premier engineering solutions providers and project specialists. With manufacturing units at Thane, Dadra and Pantnagar , Voltas offers engineering solutions for a wide spectrum of industries in areas such as heating, ventilation and air conditioning, refrigeration, electro-mechanical projects, textile machinery, mining and construction equipment, materials handling equipment, water management & treatment, cold chain solutions, building management systems, and indoor air quality.

Financials: In the last five financial years, the top line of Voltas grew at annual CAGR growth of 16.5% while operating profit of the company for the same period grew at 22.68%. However, owing to significant increase of borrowing cost during the same period the PAT grew only at CAGR of 5%. In FY12, the Net Sales of Voltas grew merely 0.50% to Rs 5160.72 crore over FY11, the Operating Profit declined 32.42% to Rs 301.96 crore while due to exceptional items the PAT turn down 57.04% to Rs 151.87 crore from FY11. In Q3FY13, The Net Sales of the company grew 2% from Q3FY12, while Operating Profit of the company decline by 79% but PAT surged 162%. The operating margin and PAT margin of the company plunged 551bps to 1.42% and 1665bps to 6.33% respectively compare to same quarter of the last year.

INVESTMENT GROUNDS
Difficult Economic conditions affecting industrial demand ..
The current economic conditions both in India and in overseas continued to be grim. On the Domestic front, various growth parameters such as GDP, IIP, capital & engineering goods growth & Investment proposals appear to have hit an all-time low. However, on the global front while, US GDP performance in the last quarter was comparatively lower, but their economy seems to now be showing small signs of revival. The Euro-zone however remains in its ongoing state of crisis, although fears of collapse have temporarily receded and there are many positive trends likely to come from gulf countries such as UAE, KSA where companies like Voltas has considerable amount of business interest would get the benefits of the same.

New Competent product will boost the volume growth of ACs …

While keeping in the mind the diverse excruciating weather conditions of India, Voltas has launched all weather air conditioners (ACs) which has been tailored specifically for varied climatic conditions across the country, all around the year. With the launch of this innovative product in the last winter season, Voltas has targeted to achieve the sales target of one million ACs in the current fiscal against 0.8 million units last year. In the last few years, company has been growing at 20% and further with the launch of this competent product, it is confident to achieve 20-25% sales growth of ACs in FY14.

 
 

Ready to launch more product range in white goods segment ...
Voltas has recently signed a JV with Turkish white goods conglomerate - Arcelik, to introduce its own refrigerators, washing machines and microwave ovens. The JV will facilitate Voltas for the technology transfer, product development and manufacturing of innovative and competent products domestically as well as for the global market also. The JV with the leading European company will help Voltas to add range of products in the white goods category, Voltas is already a market leader in the AC segment and it will boost the revenue growth of household consumer durables.

Healthier Order inflows helping to improve the margins ...
After the subdued orders in the previous quarters, Voltas has reported sequential improvement of 155% to Rs 870 crore in order inflows that helped to attain total order book to Rs 4,210 crore in Q3FY13. The order inflow improved mainly because of improved orders in industrial and IT/ITeS sectors in the domestic market, these segments contributed 54% of total order book in Q3. However, while the management has been playing it safe by indicating weak outlook for order inflows, going ahead due to slower demand and intense competition but owing to scope of robust demand from its most crucial markets in Gulf Countries, especially from Qatar, Dubai & Abu Dhabi, orders are expected to pick up in first quarter of FY14.

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  MARKET TUTORIALS    
 
   
 
 
ANALYSING COMPANY'S FINANCIAL POSITION
 
 
 
 
Investors having interest in significant number of listed companies through minor shareholdings should also track their performance periodically. The main source to check the performance of a company is to evaluate the financial performance published periodically at relevant media portals. To understand and value a company, investors have to look at its financial position. Fortunately, this is not as difficult as it sounds, because it's not necessary to have comprehensive knowledge of accounts & finance. Its simple, suppose, If you borrow money from a bank, you have to list the value of all your significant assets, as well as all your significant liabilities. Your bank uses this information to assess the strength of your financial position; it looks at the quality of the assets, such as your car and your house, and places a conservative valuation upon them. The bank also ensures that all liabilities, such as mortgage and credit card debt, are properly disclosed and fully valued. Like your own financial position, assets and liabilities of a company define its financial position, which can be analyzed in the balance sheet of a company. Therefore, we will discuss the most contents of balance sheet, which signifies the actual financial position of a company.
 

Assets and Liabilities: Assets and liabilities are two significant part of balance sheet of a company. Further, they are broken into current and non-current items. Current assets or liabilities are those with an expected life of less than 12 months. In fact, current liabilities are the obligations the company has to pay within the coming year, and include existing (or accrued) obligations to suppliers, employees, the tax office and providers of short-term finance. Companies try to manage cash flow to ensure that funds are available to meet these short-term liabilities as they come due. Conversely, Non-current assets or liabilities are those with lives expected to extend beyond the next year. Long-term liabilities might be related to obligations under property, plant and equipment leasing contracts, along with other borrowings.

Current Ratio: To assess the ability of a company to meet its short-term obligations Analysts commonly use the current ratio, which is total current assets divided by total current liabilities. An acceptable current ratio varies across industries, but should not be so low that it suggests impending insolvency, or so high that it indicates an unnecessary build-up in cash, receivables or inventory. Like any form of ratio analysis, the evaluation of a company's current ratio should take place in relation to the past.

Financial Position (Book Value): If we subtract total liabilities from assets, we are left with shareholder equity. Essentially, this

 



is the book value, or accounting value, of the shareholders' stake In the company. It is principally made up of the capital contributed by shareholders over time and profits earned and retained by the company, including that portion of the any profit not paid to shareholders as a dividend.

Market-to-Book Multiple: Investors can easily determine the worth of stock by comparing the company's market value to its book value, whether it is under-priced or over-priced. The market-to-book multiple, while it does have shortcomings, remains a key tool for value investors. Extensive academic evidence shows that companies with low market-to-book stocks perform better than those with high multiples. This makes sense since a low market-to-book multiple shows that the company has a strong financial position in relation to its price tag. Determining what can be defined as a high or low market-to-book ratio also depends on comparisons. To get a sense of whether a company's book-to-market multiple is high or low, you need to compare it to the multiples of other publicly listed peer group companies.

Summing Up
The total value of all assets less the total value of all liabilities gives your net worth, or equity. Evaluating the financial position of a listed company is quite similar, except investors need to take another step and consider financial position in relation to market value. Hence, a company's financial position tells investors about its general well-being. A study of it and other relevant financials information mentioned in the footnotes of the annual report of companies published annually is essential for any serious investor wanting to understand and value a company properly.

 
 
 
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      COMMODITY SECTION  
   
 
 
BULLIONS SHOWN SOME V SHAPE RECOVERY: FOMC EYED
 
 
 
 

Gold and silver mounted for the seventh time in previous eight days, spring back from the biggest slump in three decades, as intensifying central bank and physical purchases counteract falling Gold ETP (exchange-traded product) holdings. The dimensions for the Shanghai Gold Exchange's benchmark contract has been added by more than four times last year's daily average every day ever since April 16, at the same time as transaction of Gold Coins by the US Mint are heading for the uppermost total since Jan 2009. Cash Gold of 99.99% purity added 1.3% to 294.84 Yuan a gram ($1,485.10 an ounce) taking place the Shanghai Gold Exchange, China's largest spot bullion market. The contract's every day volume has pinnacled 20 tons since April 16, judge against with last year's average of as regards 4.7 tons. On the other hand holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest bullion-backed exchange-traded product, are lay down for the largest monthly decline since trading began in 2004. Holdings in Gold ETFs knock down another 7.52 metric tons & and outflows of 253.63 since the end of last year. Data on the its Web site show gold holdings now stand at 1,097.19 metric tons compared to 1,350.82 at the end of 2012.

The main reason for the biggest decline in the last three years of Gold ETF is that Goldman Sachs advised going short on Paper Gold accompanied with the rumors that Cyprus had committed to sell about 400 million euros ($521 million) of gold which later on strongly denied by the Cypriot central bank though there has been a dramatic pick-up in physical purchases of Gold Coins, Bars & Jewelry globally. The run away in Gold Prices came at a key time for buyers in India, thus giving an added lift to demand from the world's largest gold-consuming nation. Meanwhile International Monetary Fund has recently revealed that Russia and Turkey hoisted their Gold Reserves in March helped trigger the latest gains.

 
monthly report
The World Gold Council says they added 534.6 metric tons to reserves in 2012, the most in almost a half century, and expects purchases of 450 to 550 tons this year, valued now at as much as $25.3 billion. Physical Gold Demand has stayed strong around the world ever since Gold Prices hit a two-year low earlier this month. The U.S. Mint has reported a massive sales figure of 208,500 ounces of Gold Bullion so far in April that is the strongest of any month since December 2009. According to our estimates the current sharp bounce to the upside is likely to be a temporary reaction to the precipitous fall of the past few weeks & there could be another bout of selling.

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MANSUKH SECURITIES& FINANCE LTD.       :
MANSUKH COMMODITY FUTURES PVT. LTD:
NSE: INB/INF230781431, NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-140-2000
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Disclaimer : :This report is for informational purposes only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Mansukh, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the Mansukh is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliate, officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation of issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in these securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments or the company(ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company(ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such Company(ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High Court.
Safe Harbor Statement :Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectation, outlook etc are included in this update ot help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's products and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisor before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
 
 
 

 
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  AUXILIARY SECTION    
 
   
 
 
MIFM - CAREER ENRICHMENT THROUGH KNOWLEDGE AND INNOVATIVE THINKING
 
 



Mansukh Institute of Financial Markets (MIFM) is an advanced research institute established by Mr. J U Mansukhani, an ex-IES Officer, who has decades of experience in financial markets and research, is the founder of Mansukh Institute of Financial Markets. MIFM is specializes in Financial Market Education and Services. MIFM is pioneers in introducing short-term job-oriented diploma programme for providing state-of-the art facilities in the field of financial markets. Specifically, it caters to the need of training and placement for the personnel engaged in financial markets like Marketing Personnel, Dealers/Arbitrageurs, Research Analysts and Managers.

Vision
To be world class Training & Education Institute shaping careers through our eminent faculty & cutting edge research & becoming a shining example of achieving such high standards as to make the alumni proud of its pedigree.

Mission
To enhance the glow of knowledge through quality educational programmes resulting in improvement of the intellectual & practical skills of individuals for their overall growth & growth of society.

For more updates please visit our website :- www.mifm.edu.in or follow us on facebook at http://www.facebook.com/Mansukh.Institute.of.Financial.Markets